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This blog and writings mentioned here are for educational purposes only. By no means do any of it's contents recommond, advocate, or urge the reader the buying, selling or holding of any financial instrument whatsoever. Trading and investment involves high level of risk. The author expresses personal opinion and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. The author may or may not have positions in financial instruments discussed here. Future results can be dramatically different from the opinions expressed herein. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Market out look 28-11-2011 to 02-12-2011

Namaste.
Nifty closed at 4710.05 on 25th November 2011, the last trading of the previous week. Nifty lost 195.75 on weekly close on close basis compared to last  trading week ended on 18th November 2011. What is in store for coming for Nifty, let us try to forecast with the help of few technical analysis charts.  Before that let us examine the nifty movement for the week ended 25th November 2011
Date                      Open                     High                       Low                        Close
11/18/2011         4899.15 4915.90 4837.95 4905.80
11/21/2011         4873.80 4873.80 4764.80 4778.35
11/22/2011         4794.85 4854.00 4782.55 4812.35
11/23/2011         4779.50 4779.50 4640.95 4706.45
11/24/2011         4707.55 4771.10 4639.10 4756.45
11/25/2011         4731.30 4767.30 4693.10 4710.05
As can be seen from above Nifty posted gains on 22nd November and 24th November 2011 and fell on rest of the days.

On 28th October 2011 nifty made a top out side the bolinger bands, whose bottom is inside the bands, this calls for trend reversal existing at that time.
On 8th November 2011, the Chande Momentum Oscilator crossed it’s 9day moving average confirming the down fall. The Chande Momentum returned without entering the over bought area of +50.


Nifty made a top out side envolops on 28th October 2011, started it’s downward journey from there, reached the lower band of envolops and made a bottom out side lower band.

Atr of Nifty made a top on 24th October 2011 made a top confirming the bottom made by Nifty on same day to be true.
As can be seen from Nifty-4 Chart, laguerre Rsi is making a bottom and flat, Premier stochastic is in over sold area but did not come out of over sold area.

Volume zone  oscillator and  volume price oscillator both entered over sold area and turned up.
Based on the above I am of the opinion that immediate steeper downfall of Nifty is some what restricted and Nifty may see some upside movement in days to come. The prudent trading idea would be buying Nifty ( spot) when it closes  above 4763 with a stop loss of 4759.00. The probable target of Nifty are 4980.00
Thanks and regards
Subrahmanyam.
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