Market out look 09-01-2012 to 13-01-2012

OM NAMO BHAGAVATHE SREE RAMAKRISHNAYA

Market out look 09-01-2012 to 13-01-2012

Namaste. Nifty closed at 4754.10  on  6^th January 2012, the last trading day of previous trading week. In my last write up I opined that,.

“Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty may post some more losses before making a valid bottom.

I believe that the market will most likely post a bottom on 4^th January 2012. ( Hope I will not be proved wrong)”

Let us examine the market behavior during the previous week

Date                  Open                 High                   Low                   Close

12/30/2011     4659.95           4690.45           4608.90           4624.30

01/02/2012     4640.20           4645.95           4588.05           4636.75

01/03/2012     4675.80           4773.10           4675.80           4765.30

01/04/2012     4774.95           4782.85           4728.85           4749.65

01/05/2012     4749.00           4779.80           4730.15           4749.95

01/06/2012     4724.15           4794.90           4686.85           4754.10

Nifty went up on first two trading days, posted smart gains on3rd January 2012, instead of 4^th as assumed by me and went down/ flat next two days and  posted small gains on last trading day.

Let us try to make a guess what is in store for Nifty for the coming week.

The last bar on Nifty chart is outside day, the journey started at the upper band  of Projection Band did not reach the lower band, chande momentum oscillator is above it’s 9 day moving average and trending up. ( please refer to Nifty-1)



The last bar rested on middle band of Bolinger and the bands are shrinking, ( Please refer to Nifty-2)

The r-squared turning down suggesting weakness in the recent up move ( please refer to Nifty-3)

Volume zone oscillator and price zone oscillator are trending up and adx is trending down ( please refer to Nifty-4)

Premier Stochastic and Laguerrie Rsi are trending up, Premier not yet reached over bought area. ( Please refer to Nifty-5)

Important support area for spot nifty lies at 4693 and resistance at 4789.00

Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty is most likely to undergo sideways movement with negative bias.

Regards

Subrahmanyam





Market out look 02-01-2012 to 06-01-2012

OM NAMO BHAGAVATHE SREE RAMAKRISHNAYA

MARKET OUT LOOK 02-01-2012 TO 06-01-2012

Namaste. In my previous write up I opined that

“Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty most likely to undergo correction next week, before resuming it’s upward journey. The important levels for Nifty are, close below 4681.00 to impart bearishness and 4776.00 to initiate fresh bull move”

Let us examine the Nifty behavior during the reported period.

12/26/2011     4718.15           4787.25           4718.15           4779.00

12/27/2011     4780.20           4800.50           4723.65           4750.50

12/28/2011     4756.20           4756.20           4685.65           4705.80

12/29/2011     4681.15           4701.80           4639.05           4646.25

12/30/2011     4659.95           4690.45           4608.90           4624.30

On the first day of the last trading week, Nifty posted smart gains and fell rest of the four days and closed at 4624.30, being the last trading day of the previous trading week.

Let us try to analyze the likely behavior of Nifty in days to come with the help of few technical charts.

Nifty-1

The present move started from the middle band of Bolinger, which is yet to reach the lower band of Bolinegr, the present value of the same is 4519.25,  ( Please refer to Nifty Chart-2)





The R-Squared is just turning up, not yet above the critical level, ( Please refer to Nifty-3)

Volume zone oscillator and Price zone oscillator are both trending down, volume zone oscillator not yet reached the over sold area, ( Please refer to Nifty Chart-4)

Lagurree RSi and Premier are turning down, Premier without entering the over bought area ( Please refer to Nifty Chart-5)

Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty may post some more losses before making a valid bottom.

I believe that the market will most likely post a bottom on 4^th January 2012. ( Hope I will not be proved wrong)

Thanks and regards

Subrahmanyam

01-01-2012 6.36 P.M. (IST)